Collective Stupidity

Only a couple of weeks later, the swine flu panic has lost all its glamor and exhaustive coverage. Today the front Web page of Washington Post did not have a single entry about it. I don't watch cable news networks, but I'm sure they are foaming at the mouths about the bank stress test and federal budget in this moment rather than the influenza.

According to the CDC Web site, there have been nearly 900 cases of lab-confirmed swine flu cases and 2 deaths. Two! One was a toddler who was visiting Texas from Mexico and probably contracted it there. Both deaths were related to pre-existing illnesses. Health officials now say the initially estimated death rate in Mexico (~6%) was too high, because the estimation of the base number of infected people was too small, because they only counted those who were sick enough to be hospitalized and tested for the virus. The estimation missed the large number of carriers walking around without feeling too sick. The same overestimation of danger occurred in SARS too. Duh! This is not rocket science. Wouldn't any experienced epidemiologist or infections disease physician already know the phenomenon?

I pat myself on the back for predicting within the first few days of the news barrage that this will be no big deal. The virus is fairly weak and not too lethal. The outbreaks occurred at the tail end of the flu season.

If the flu has done anything notable, it is to remind us (although there is no shortage of such reminders from time to time) how stupid the masses are. The health authorities, driven by the fear of being blamed by the mob and the eternal need to cover their own behind, hyped up the risks out of proportion. The news media, in desperate need to attract a large audience, screamed fire day and night. The people, urgently wanting to forget about the crumbling poor house they are living in, spewed their fears through the usual channels: racism and bigotry. "Close the border! Stop the Mexicans from entering!" There have been anecdotes of patients refusing services from Hispanic-looking nurses. Schools and entire school districts close down for a week, two weeks, and threw tens of thousands of students back homes and into malls, movie theaters, the streets, just because a few students had a fever. This happened in Maryland too, not just Texas, where you would expect their bureaucrats to be not so bright.

I am no expert in infectious disease or public health, not a physician, and not an epidemiologist. I've read just one book on the history of small pox and have some basic knowledge of how bugs go around. And I have a little bit of independent thinking and judgment. It is quite amazing how even "experts" blew the whole thing vastly out of proportion. The average person, including authoritative, confident talking-heads on TV, were losing their last shred of reason at the slightest, perhaps imaginery danger. The more ignorant a person is, the more hysterical he or she becomes. The real pandemic is a small mind. Unfortunately there is no cure for that.

It is funny (would be more funny if I didn't live here) that a small, low-risk bug would bring so much display of stupidity out of people. A good reminder for the next time when everyone rushes into something -- like rushing into the stock market, housing market, or tulips.

Martin Beck

barb 同学在看 Martin Beck 小说。这个系列小说我只看过两本，还是很久以前，不太记得内容了。但是看过电视剧，是本地一个国际电视台播放的。非常好看，让我很上瘾，里面都是一堆玩世不恭成天说怪话的中年男人，生活一团糟。尤其是脾气特坏的 Gunwald Larson，很多冷幽默，特别deadpan，感觉很瑞典。可惜现在这边不放了，据说在瑞典拍了很多很多季，深受欢迎。

Screwball comedy

有这么一类喜剧电影，现在已经很少见到，在三四十年代特别流行。当时因为海斯办公室严厉审查，不许在银幕上搞黄色活动，所以大家绞尽脑汁写对白机智又引入遐想的剧本。真正的 screwball comedy 电影我看过而又记得的只有 His Girl Friday 和 Bringing Up Baby 两出，男主角都是 Cary Grant，女主角分别是 Rosalind Russell 和 Katherine Hepburn。此类喜剧的特点就是男女主角从头到尾不停地唇枪舌剑斗嘴吵架，全戏院的观众都知道他们是欢喜冤家，只有他们自己不知道，直到最后才边吵边投入对方的怀抱。

His Girl Friday 特别眩，里面全部是机关枪对话，邦邦邦邦邦，也不知他们俩怎么把那么长那么复杂的台词背下来又高速喷射出来的。厉害死了。第一次在TCM上面看见这个片子惊呆了，怎么好莱坞后来再也不拍这么精彩的片子？后来才发现，没人写剧本么。




上周末看 BBC 拍摄的莎士比亚名剧现代版，就是厨房版麦克白的系列。一共四集，另外三集都是喜剧来的，包括驯悍记，仲夏夜之梦，和无事生非。无事生非看着看着，忽然发现，嗐，这就是 screwball comedy 么！笑死。当然，也不能说 screwball comedy 是莎老头发明的，因为古希腊的喜剧里就有类似的传统，不过我对希腊喜剧也没研究，不知道他们是否特地搞了一类男女主角从头吵到底的喜剧。可以肯定的是，无事生非跟 screwball 电影绝对是一回事。

P&P movie

最近因为看 Little Dorrit 的缘故，对 Matthew Macfadyen 稍微有点 crush，顺手找了电影版傲慢与偏见来看。结果看了一点儿就吃不消关掉了。真是不知所谓，一定是直男导演的，整个味道都是错的，好象加了酱油的巧克力蛋糕。我不是奥斯丁迷，她的小说里除了 Persuasion 以外都没什么感觉，太说教，太精明算计，正负黑白褒贬太明显。即使如此，也不应该这么被糟蹋呀，还不如干脆改编成现代小明星的校园片儿算了。Macfadyen 本来演技非常好，在年轻一代男演员里属于罕见的功底，但是在这片儿里从头到尾苦着脸没有变化，让人错以为他是 Ben Affleck。Keira Knightly 我一直都不太喜欢，瘦精精的大扁脸，说话舌头总是有点儿卷着，让我不舒服。她的形象和举止都非常现代，应该全拍现代剧才对，拍什么古装片，感觉非常游离。

My problem with Jane Austen novels is her cool distance held at all times between the reader and the author. She is sitting high on the mountain top, handing down wisdom and role models of perfect female conduct and drawing maps to life-long happiness for inexperienced girls. It doesn't work for me. I would rather read about characters who always get things wrong, mess their lives up, and consumed by their human frailties.

哦不！Law and Order: UK

今天偶然在网上发现，Law and Order 要被引进改编出英国版了，由 ITV 制作。稍微昏倒一下。

一般都是美国电视改编抄袭英国的走红节目，从 American Idol 到 Big Brothers 都是抄袭英国先发明的节目，电视剧里面有 The Office 这样的成功例子，也有 Coupling 这样的失败例子。 很少听说有美国节目转销到英国的例子。这个英国系列是 L&O Mothership 系列的翻版，一半是警察侦探，一半是法庭戏。好像今年已经开始播放了。

Law and Order 系列有过传染到外国的先例，Law & Order: Criminal Intent 已经有俄国改编版和法国改编版。据我所知法国改编版是先锋，2005 就开播了。也许因为 CI 当时的 show runner 是 Rene Balcer，是说法语的加拿大人，所以跟法国牵线比较容易。由人到中年的过气小生 Vincent Perez 主演。下面是法国版 CI 的剧照。



L&O 真是章鱼，触角伸入外国电视界。这样的成就在美国电视节目里大概是空前的。美国文艺节目固然以文化帝国主义的方式入侵世界各地，但这个不同，是被当地电视吸收为己用的做法。

Currently watching

HBO series "In Treatment". I watched several episodes before, but now I'm starting from the beginning and following the series in proper order. It is so riveting, so intense, almost hard to watch sometimes. It must have been very difficult for actors too.

Kennedy's Brain

正看到一半。这是一本非常非常伤心的小说，我没法不猜想当时作者 Henning Mankell 一定是受了什么亲身打击或悲剧。我看见他的时候正是2005年春天。捉住他问下一本小说写什么，是不是 Linda Wallander 系列，他说，不，下一本小说是关于失踪的肯尼迪之脑的故事。没想到四年之后才看到这本小说的英文版。当时他还在写吧？或者刚刚写完；因为小说的设定就是2005年。

故事的题材是关于艾滋病在非洲肆虐，药厂在无人问津的非洲人民身上做药物试验。很巧，这是一个我一直想写但是弄不好情节载体的题材。因为这些都是真事儿，Le Carre 已经在 The Constant Gardner 里写过了，是2000年左右就出版的，不过那本小说写得也不怎么特别好看。最近Pfizer （世界第一大药厂）才刚刚跟一群乌干达患者庭外和解，他们跑到纽约法院控告药厂在当地做临床试验不遵守国际标准，草菅人命。庭外和解的协议规定药厂只掏钱，不承认做错任何事，过去的历史也被埋了起来，可以换个地方继续进行。

在这本小说里，一切的阴谋和罪行都在阴影中游移，从未明写，象洛杉矶山谷上空的smog，身在其中就看不见摸不着，但能感觉到它的无所不在。